Year "increased security" markedly out yet for the coming year - Refractory Industry

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08 11 months, when the international financial crisis, the global epidemic, A shares of record low of 1664 points, the occasion, the State Council executive meeting of the decisive kick "capital growth, structural adjustment," Prelude: 4 trillion investment, "double expansion" policy , measures to expand domestic demand and 10 ... ... flurry of "protecting eight war" broke out in the country.





A year later, the domestic economic situation for all to see. Third-quarter GDP growth rate close to the level of potential growth rate, investment, consumption and export demand have appeared signs of improvement, business and consumer confidence improved steadily.
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Last of the stimulus since the end of the economic situation, the successful rescue, restore confidence of the parties. Experts estimate that China's GDP this year to stimulate growth policies have contributed at least 3-4 percentage points, and in the following aspects received a direct effect.





First, government investment as a "vanguard" to avoid macro-economic "hard landing." Since the end of last year, government investment into full play the investment "quick, strong pull," the characteristics of the first three quarters this year, GDP grew 7.7%, of which investment contributed 7.3 percentage points, effectively made up for a serious decline of external demand.





Second, the start of domestic demand, future growth is expected to be more benign. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, export growth over the previous year for 7 years kept at 20%, and this growth is difficult to maintain in the future, domestic demand will be a timely fashion to long-term stable development of the economy the only way. At the same time the current round of changes in the development of the international financial crisis provided a rare "window of time." Since last year, "structural adjustment and promote structural changes" significantly speeded up.





In addition, a series of reforms to benefit the people's livelihood. A year ago the State Council executive session, to ensure the economic growth improve people's livelihood as the starting point and end point, oil tax reform, medical reform, affordable housing construction and a number of policy measures to benefit the livelihood of the people one after another. States to implement a proactive employment policy, the current view of new employment goal this year is likely to exceeded.





Finally, market forces into full play and perfect for macro-control to add valuable experience. Last year the State Council executive meeting, the State introduced substantial cuts intensive, ten industrial revitalization planning, finance 30, to promote the healthy development of real estate and a series of policy measures, the most difficult months of almost weekly, the new policy introduced . Macro-control "fast, heavy, accurate, real" requirements are effectively implemented, and resolved over the deleveraging impact of lower mobility decreased, to avoid shrinkage caused by the endogenous debt constraints.





, Of course, the implementation of these stimulus effects are not perfect. As part of asset prices rising too fast, to the residents earlier inflation expectations, and may restrict the future expansion of domestic space; ten industry plan to revive after the first adjustment, but industry overcapacity still evident in some areas also emergence of revenue and expenditure pressures and so on. But on the whole, the implementation of last year's "capital growth, structural adjustment" measures the effect is obvious, the target initially realized.





The same time, it should be noted that despite the nearly two quarters of data is more ideal, but far from our economy to achieve "peace of mind" stage, "capital growth" for some time in the future will remain an important objective of macro-control policy, the withdrawal of economic stimulus is yet to be in the coming year.





From historical experience, economic stimulus, at least until the withdrawal of two clear signals. First, economic growth driven by the Government turned to endogenous growth, economic recovery and further establish the trend. Second, as macroeconomic indicators lag significantly higher rate of inflation, the inflation pressure is expected to gradually evolve into reality. But whether it is China or the world, both have not yet become a reality.





While Israel, Australia, Norway and other countries have announced interest rates have been, but the global macroeconomic policy is still expansionary period, the withdrawal of stimulus, not all countries can not be implemented simultaneously. Especially for our country, the focus of expansionary policies in the real economy and the long-term investment projects in the short term will continue to maintain a certain size of the deficit. Once the earlier tightening of monetary policy, appreciation of the pressures and "hot money" influx may also be offset by tightening effect.





In addition, since the third quarter, credit growth had returned to the level of around 500 billion yuan monthly, loose monetary policy to gradually return to the original meaning of moderation. It is foreseeable that the next stage of China's macroeconomic policies will enhance the forward-looking and flexible, constantly seeking balance, until the stimulus of the "stick" complete withdrawal.





Upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, will set the tone for next year, the task of economic regulation. For the time being, the state may still continue to adhere to a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy and focus on inflation expectations, excess capacity and asset price bubbles and timely fine-tuning, "the people's livelihood benefits of reform, structural adjustment and development" will be the main keynote. More "" Refractory Network       HC refractory Network        Refractory Information Network