Why is the steady rise of the Chinese economy at the "critical period"

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17 State Council executive meeting on the current economic situation, the clear conclusion: Chinese economy is in a steady rise of the critical period. The meeting stressed that steadfastly continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy appropriately and comprehensively implement the deal with the international financial crisis package, and changes according to constantly enrich and improve the situation.


    By the international financial crisis and its cyclical adjustment of the dual factors, China's economic growth last year, a marked decline in the second half. Since last November, the central and decisive to adjust macroeconomic policies to promote economic growth package, introduced in succession.


    "From several months of industrial production and investment, consumption data shows that the steady rise of China's economic situation is very clear. This shows that the state package, making domestic demand expanding, and initially contained a sharp drop in the economy, stability, confidence in living." Peking University National Accounts Research Center Caizhi Zhou said.
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    From the production side, growth is the fastest growing industries out, rebounding is the most significant industry. The first two months of this year, the national scale industrial growth rate is only 3.8% to 8.3% rebound in March, up 8.9% in May, the highest last 8 months to a new high.
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    Demand from the domestic side, investment in high speed, consumption remains strong. January to May, China's urban fixed asset investment up 32.9% over the previous two months of accelerated growth rate 6.4 percentage points. In recent months, total retail sales growth remained at 15%.


    "Industrial, investment, consumption data are passed out a positive signal, but the industrial growth rate remained significantly below average, some enterprises are still rather difficult. The most uncertain factor is exports, a decline which had been extended." Cai Zhizhou that the international the financial crisis spread to the real economy, affecting demand and thus the developed countries restricted exports to China.


    Exports have been negative growth for 7 months. Statistics show that China's exports in May fell 26.4%, decreased by 3.4% in the first half of the negative export growth of 20% almost certain.


    Macro economy of China Academy of Social Sciences director Zhang Xiaojing that our country does have many positive economic signs, but there are some worrying problems, foundation is not solid. "Is at a critical period in the steady rise of the" analysis is an objective judge. Since it is a "critical period" can not be blindly optimistic, but can not relax.


    In the international financial crisis on the real economy impact of the world has not bottomed out, external demand will continue downturn, uphold and improve the existing package of macroeconomic policies and an inevitable choice, it is easy to come to naught once the slack. This must be kept clear understanding, to do well in a longer period to deal with various difficult and complex situations to prepare.


    "Our primary objective remains is to increase employment in order to keep improving people's livelihood, it should continue to implement the stimulus should not be for several months to improve on the turn." Cai Zhizhou said.


    State Council executive meeting stressed that the consolidation and development of stabilizing the situation for the better, we must further adjust the structure, further strengthen agriculture as the foundation to further develop the role of scientific and technological support and further improve energy conservation and emission reduction, and further promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and regions, further deepening reform and opening up to further improve people's livelihood.


    Cai Zhizhou that this 7 "further", more consideration is the long-term sustainable development, strengthen internal momentum and expand the space, is to continue to consolidate and expand the "victories" of policy arrangements.


    It should be noted that the steady rise in the critical period of the economy, there is long-term economic development of China's extensive pattern of distorted relations between investment and consumption, excess capacity and so the problem is not solved, then there may be capital markets and real estate market heating up and so on with each other to promote new problems. In addition, there are still variables in the world economy.


    Department of the State Council Development Research Center of Macroeconomic Research Fellow said Zhang Liqun, a rainy day, according to changes in domestic and international economic situation and long-term development needs, strengthen the reserves of policy research, to improve macro-control target is forward-looking and very necessary.