Wang Yan Plan: To Contain The Cement Industry Overcapacity Views

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On the inhibition Cement Industry overcapacity, the text of the State Council has issued 38, which is Cement Industry, a major event in inhibiting the development of the current blind, and excess capacity will have an important role. I am here to talk about the excess capacity of cement on the inhibition of some of the views.



One question on the capacity of data mini champagne bottles

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38 No. written that: "in 2008 to 1.87 billion tons of cement capacity, including 1.1 billion tons of dry cement, special cement and Grinding Station capacity 270 million tons, backward production capacity of about 500 million tons, current production of 1.4 billion tons of cement . currently under construction, cement production line 418, capacity 620 million tons, in addition to the approved production line not yet started 147, capacity 210 million tons. After the completion of such production, cement production capacity will reach 2.7 billion tons, the market demand is only 16 million tons of excess production capacity severely. "



Productivity data question is "cement production capacity will reach 2.7 billion tons."



1, special number of special cement cement production is very low, including oil well cement, white cement, alumina cement aluminate cement and sulfur, including special cement output is about more than 1000 tons, with 1.4 billion tons compared to the total, or even negligible. Does not match the base closed circuit grinding clinker production capacity is clinker production base should not be double counting. Thus, special cement and grinding stations should not be included in the total capacity of 270 million tons. No.



2,38 3 years to require the complete elimination of backward production capacity, 500 million tons production capacity is not backward into the overall capacity of the column.



Therefore, according to the number listed in the text, 38, cement production capacity should be 2.7 billion tons less 270 million tons and 500 million tons, to 1.93 billion tons. Years results show that cement production capacity of 70% to 80%. If calculated according to 75%, 3 years, new dry process production of 14.5 million tons, can not meet the paper notes that the demand of 16 million tons.



In addition, the units obtained through field investigation, the current real dry production line under construction about 350, did not reach as many as 418.



Information data is very important and should strive to correct, because it is the basis for policy formulation.



2, on the problem of excess production capacity



Excess capacity of cement to make concrete analysis of the problem.



China is in rapid economic development period, cement consumption increased year by year. In 2008 more than 1.3 billion tons of cement consumption in 2000 to 2008 average annual growth rate of 11.2%, first half of 2009 increased by 14.9%. If in the future growth of 8% per year by 2015 cement demand will increase to 20 million tons, equivalent to 2.7 billion tons capacity.



A statement, the highest per capita consumption of cement shall be 1 ton. This argument lacks scientific basis, different countries and regions at different times the highest per capita consumption will be different, such as Taiwan, the highest per capita consumption of cement is 1.3 tons in 1973. Vast continental area, terrain, population, transportation, utilities, construction of urban space and other particularly large, million investment over the years have higher cement consumption in 2015, two billion tons of cement demand forecast is more realistic.